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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers rising collectively. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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