Why Is The Current US Shutdown Different (as well as More Intractable)?

Placeholder image Government shutdown illustration

Government closures are a repeat feature of US politics – however the current situation appears especially difficult to resolve because of political dynamics along with deep-seated animosity between the two parties.

Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 employees are expected to be put on furlough without pay as Republicans and Democrats can't agree on a spending bill.

Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse continue to fall short, with little visibility on a clear resolution path this time because both parties – including the President – perceive advantages in digging in.

These are the four ways in which this shutdown distinct currently.

First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues

The Democratic base have insisted for months for their representatives more forcefully fights the current presidency. Well now Democratic leaders has a chance to show they have listened.

In March, Senate leader was fiercely criticised for helping pass GOP budget legislation and averting a government closure early this year. This time he's holding firm.

This presents an opportunity for Democrats to demonstrate their ability to reclaim some control from a presidency pursuing its agenda assertively with determined action.

Refusing to back the Republican spending plan comes with political risk that the wider public will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.

The Democrats are leveraging the shutdown fight to put a spotlight on expiring health insurance subsidies and GOP-backed federal health program reductions for the poor, both facing public opposition.

They are also trying to curtail the President's use of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money approved by Congress, which he has done in international assistance and other programmes.

2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity

The President and one of his key officials have openly indicated their perspective that they smell a chance to make more of the cutbacks to the federal workforce implemented during the current presidential term to date.

The President himself said last week that the government closure provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to cut "opposition-supported departments".

Administration officials stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" involving significant workforce reductions to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. The Press Secretary said this was just "budgetary responsibility".

The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, but the White House has been in discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, or OMB, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.

The administration's financial chief has already announced the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, such as NYC and Chicago.

Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side

While previous shutdowns typically involved extended negotiations between the two parties aimed at restoring government services running again, there appears to be minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.

Conversely, animosity prevails. The bad blood continued over the weekend, as both sides blaming each other regarding the deadlock's origin.

The legislative leader from the majority party, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and maintaining positions during discussions "to get political cover".

Meanwhile, the opposition's chief made similar charges at the other side, saying that a majority party commitment regarding health funding talks once the government reopens cannot be trusted.

The President himself has inflamed the situation through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader and the top Democrat in the House, in which the legislator is depicted with traditional headwear and a moustache.

The representative with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.

Fourth, The American Economy is fragile

Experts project approximately two-fifths of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to be put on unpaid leave as a result of the shutdown.

That will depress spending – and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors along with various forms of government activity connected to commercial interests cease functioning.

A shutdown also injects fresh instability into an economy currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and artificial intelligence.

Analysts estimate potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.

However, economic activity generally rebounds the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, as it would after disruption caused by a natural disaster.

That could be one reason why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.

Conversely, analysts say that if the President carries out proposed significant workforce reductions, economic harm might become extended in duration.

Mr. David Love MD
Mr. David Love MD

Tech enthusiast and writer with a passion for exploring emerging technologies and their impact on society.