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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.